The AI IPO race accelerates
OpenAI confirmed it has confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC for a proposed IPO, roughly a week after Anthropic filed to go public. The move sharpens a genuine race between the two labs, and signals 2026 is shaping up to be a blockbuster year for public markets - with Elon Musk's SpaceX also poised to debut at a $1.75 trillion valuation, and likely to list first among the three.
What the filing says - and pointedly doesn't
Like Anthropic, OpenAI filed confidentially, which lets it begin the process without yet disclosing detailed financials, a share count, or a target price. It was last valued around $852 billion post-money. But the backdrop is more complicated than the headline number suggests.
The financial reality check
The reporting around OpenAI's numbers is sobering:
- It reportedly missed its own user and revenue targets in the sprint toward an IPO, and its CFO is said to have voiced concern about supporting massive data-center spending.
- After raising a record $122 billion in March, the company is expected to spend that much on compute in 2028, burn roughly $85 billion that year even after doubling sales, and not reach positive cash flow until 2030.
- For contrast, Anthropic has painted a rosier picture, saying it is near its first quarterly profit - though with a fresh $65 billion round and reported chip-allocated debt, its burn isn't modest either.
How investors are reading it
Secondary markets offer a window: Anthropic recently surged to a $1 trillion valuation on one retail secondary platform, edging past OpenAI, and one index operator pegged Anthropic's year-to-date appreciation far ahead of OpenAI's. Even so, OpenAI hasn't cratered, and some see investors pricing both as "dual winners" of the LLM race. The catch is timing and scarce capital - experts say whoever lists first likely captures more of the increasingly scarce money flowing to AI, and Anthropic's disclosures will set a valuation comp that constrains how OpenAI can price its own offering. All of this rides atop OpenAI's turbulent history, from the 2023 boardroom ouster and reinstatement of Sam Altman to a thicket of lawsuits and political-donation controversies.